Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Modeling of a sequencing batch reactor treating municipal wastewater using multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function artificial neural networks

A sequencing batch reactor was modeled using multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function artificial neural networks (MLPANN and RBFANN). Then, the effects of influent concentration (IC), filling time (FT), reaction time (RT), aeration intensity (AI), SRT and MLVSS concentration were examined on the effluent concentrations of TSS, TP, COD and NH₄⁺-N. The results showed that the optimal removal efficiencies would be obtained at FT of 1 h, RT of 6 h, aeration intensity of 0.88 m³/min and SRT of 30 days. In addition, COD and TSS removal efficiencies decreased and TP and NH₄⁺-N removal efficiencies did not change significantly with increases of influent concentration. The TSS, TP, COD and NH₄⁺-N removal efficiencies were 86%, 79%, 94% and 93%, respectively. The training procedures of all contaminants were highly collaborated for both RBFANN and MLPANN models. The results of training and testing data sets showed an almost perfect match between the experimental and the simulated effluent of TSS, TP, COD and NH₄⁺-N. The results indicated that with low experimental values of input data to train ANNs the MLPANN models compared to RBFANN models are more precise due to their higher coefficient of determination (R²) and lower root mean squared errors (RMSE) values.     

A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

Comparison of models of simazine transport and fate in the subsurface environment in a citrus farm

Contamination of groundwater by agrochemicals is now widely recognized as an extremely important environmental problem. Modern agricultural practices involve the combined use of irrigation with the application of large amounts of agrochemicals to maximize crop yield. Due to flood irrigation and natural runoff, agricultural activities might generate soil, surface water and groundwater contamination problems and leaching of pesticides. Modeling of the transport and fate of pesticides, such as simazine, may help understand the long-term potential risk to the subsurface environment. This paper illustrates a comparative study via the use of three different pesticide transport simulation models and the applicability of those models in determining the groundwater vulnerability to pesticides contamination in a citrus orchard located at the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV). The three models used in the study are the pesticide root zone model-3 (PRZM-3), the pesticide analytical model (PESTAN) and integrated pesticide transport modeling (IPTM). The concentration values obtained from all three models are in agreement, and they show a decreasing trend from the surface through the vadose zone. The problem is how to use this information and, specifically, how to combine the testimony of a number of experts into a single useful judgment. With the aid of the fuzzy multiattribute decision making method, PRZM-3 is deemed as the most promising one for such precision farming applications.     

黄孢原毛平革菌处理染料废水过程中细胞结构损伤效应研究

利用透射电子显微镜观察分析白腐真菌(黄孢原毛平革菌)在处理染料废水活性艳红X-3B过程中,染料和盐度对黄孢原毛平革菌的细胞结构产生的毒性作用.结果表明:活性艳红X-3B染料对黄孢原毛平革菌产生生物毒性作用,且随着染料浓度的增加,细胞受损伤程度不断加深.加入100 mg/L的染料活性艳红X-3B后,黄孢原毛平革菌菌丝细胞形态发生变化,出现质壁分离现象;染料浓度进一步加大,菌丝细胞超微结构受到损伤逐渐严重.染料废水中的盐度对黄孢原毛平革菌细胞也会造成损伤,且损伤程度随盐度增大而增大.NaCl浓度为3 g/L时,菌丝细胞发生质壁分离;而当NaCl加入量高于8 g/L时,细胞膜受损,线粒体、细胞核呈现空泡化,表现为受到不可逆的损伤.染料和盐双因子对黄孢原毛平革菌细胞的损伤效应表现为其损伤程度与单因子作用一致,且染料的影响作用占主导.     

Application of GIS in the study of mass transport of pollutants by Adyar and Cooum Rivers in Chennai, Tamilnadu

Residential, industrial, commercial, institutional and recreational activities discharge degradable and non-degradable wastes that reach the coastal water through rivers and cause coastal pollution. In the present study, mass transport of pollutants by Adyar and Cooum Rivers to the coastal water as a result of land-based discharges was estimated during low tide. The lowest and the highest flow recorded in Adyar varied from 514.59 to 2,585.08×10⁶ litres/day. Similarly, the flow in Cooum River fluctuated between 266.45 and 709.34×10⁶ litres/day. The present study revealed that the Adyar River transported 53.89–454.11 t/d of suspended solids, 0.06–19.64 t/d of ammonia, 15.95–123.24 t/d of nitrate and 0.4–17.86 t/d of phosphate, 0.004–0.09 kg/d of cadmium, 0.15–1.29 kg/d of lead and 3.03–17.58 kg/d of zinc to the coastal water owing to its high discharge. Similarly, the Cooum River transported 11.87–120.06 t/d of suspended solids, 0.08–58.7 t/d of ammonia, 6.11–29.25 t/d of nitrate and 0.66–10.73 t/d of phosphate, 0.003–0.021 kg/d of cadmium, 0.02–0.44 kg/d of lead and 1.36–3.87 kg/d of zinc. A higher concentration of suspended solids was noticed in post monsoon and summer months. An increase in the mass transport of ammonia, nitrate, phosphate in summer months (April and May) and an increase in the mass transport of cadmium, lead and zinc were observed in monsoon months (October–December) in both the rivers. Thus mass transport of pollutants study reveal that Cooum and Adyar Rivers in Chennai contribute to coastal pollution by transporting inorganic and trace metals significantly through land drainage.     

中国主要电子废物产生量估算

在分析了电子废物类型及其可能造成的主要环境问题的基础上。根据电子电器产品的销量、社会保有量以及产品寿命期等因子建立模型对我国2000-2010年间的电脑、电视机、冰箱、洗衣机、空调等5大类电子电器产品的年度废弃量进行估算。结果显示到2003年电脑年度废弃量达到447万台，总体呈增长趋势；电视机、冰箱的废弃量在2003年分别达到4229万台和976万台；洗衣机年度废弃量有一定波动。大约在2005年达到一个高峰，废弃量为1521万台；空调废弃量相对于其他家电较少，但一直处于稳步增长期。并在此基础估算了我国2003年主要电子废物中的可回收资源含量。量大而且增长较快的电子废物的处置和资源再生化将是我国电子废物管理面临的一个难题。